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NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16 Odds & Betting Trends

March 28th, 2008

Kansas vs. Villanova

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 12 Villanova: Midwest Regional tipoff @ 9:40 p.m. EST tonight on CBS-HD. The last time these two teams met was back in January 2005, a game in which Villanova won 83-62. So don’t be too quick to write off Villanova in this one against the Jayhawks. The Wildcats are a talented, disciplined team and they’re eager to become one of the Elite Eight.

Some Betting Trends to Consider:
Villanova is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Villanova is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Villanova’s last 14 games
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas’s last 6 games

Memphis Tigers vs. Michigan State: Tipoff time is @ 9:57 p.m. EST tonight on CBS-HD. I have to believe that this is Memphis’s year IF they can improve their numbers at the freethrow line. Michigan State is looking for an upset.

Betting trends to consider:
Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Michigan State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 6 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Texas Longhorns vs. Stanford Cardinal: Tipoff is @ 7:27 p.m. tonight on CBS-HD. I’m going to give this one to the Longhorns because they’ll have a loud, Texas-sized crowd to cheer them on. Stanford had to win their last game in overtime, so I dunno…I’m thinking there may not be enough left in the tank for tonight.

Betting trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Stanford’s last 7 games
Stanford is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’s last 6 games
Texas is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games

Wisconsin vs. Davidson: Tipoff is tonight @ 7:10 p.m. EST on CBS-HD. I know a lot of people would like to see Davidson make it through to the Elite Eight, but against a hard-working team like the Badgers I suspect they’ll come up short.

Betting trends to consider:
Davidson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Davidson is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Davidson’s last 10 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Wisconsin’s last 9 games

NCAA Tournament Odds: Early Final Four Predictions

March 26th, 2008

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There are going to be some very, very good college basketball teams not making the Final Four this year. But who?

Naming the four No. 1 seeds going into the Tournament was easy. But we’ve yet to see all four make it to the semifinals under the current 64/65 team format. UCLA has a relatively easy path through Western Kentucky and maybe Xavier. Everyone else has some work to do.

Kansas shouldn’t be bothered by Villanova in the Sweet 16, but a potential matchup with Wisconsin’s top-ranked defense could gum up the works. I’d still take the Jayhawks straight up in that one. And I suppose the Heels are the right pick, but it won’t be easy for them against Washington State and especially Louisville, should the Cards advance. And they should.

Forcing the trend to work by excluding Memphis doesn’t make sense, but the way the Tigers are playing, I’ll take Texas anyway to win the South.

NCAA Tournament - First Round Scores & Updates

March 20th, 2008

The morning games are over and the day’s afternoon games are all well underway. How’s your bracket looking? Are you stocked for beer and munchies for tonight’s matchups? With 11 games on tap you’re going to need some serious grub to keep up with all the action. Here’s what went down earlier today:

Xavier over Georgia 73-61
Georgia controlled the first half of the game but Xavier fought back hard during the second half to win the game 73-61 over Georgia and they advance to the second round to play the winner of the Purdue-Baylor game. Derrick Brown put up 19 points and 11 rebounds, and Josh Duncan scored 20 points for the Musketeers.

Kansas over Portland State 85-61
Brandon Rush scored 18 points and the Kansas Jayhawks easily beat Portland State 85-61 in first round action. By all accounts it looked like an easy win from start to finish. “This is the part of the season where everyone has to be clicking on all cylinders,” senior guard Russell Robinson said. “We’re doing a great job of that so far.”

Michigan State over Temple 72-61
Raymar Morgan scored 15 points and the Spartans beat Temple 72-61 in the first round of the South Regional. This is Michigan State’s 11th straight trip to the NCAA tournament, but they haven’t advanced out of the second round since 2005, when they lost to North Carolina in the national semifinals.

For all your NCAA Basketball Tournament scores and recaps, go to the source at NCAA.com.

NCAA Tournament: Bracket Busters

March 19th, 2008

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Here we are again. It’s the first round of the men’s college basketball Tournament, which invariably means some unfortunate favorite – like Duke last year – is going to get the heave-ho. Millions of brackets will be busted instantly.

Keeping your bracket intact is more than just an exercise in deciding which No. 13 seed is going to advance to the second round. The point is to find which matchups fit the upset profile. Competent low-major champions often get seeded No. 13, and vulnerable big-time programs often fall to the 4-seed. But what about Winthrop-Washington State? I personally don’t see the Cougars (No. 11 in efficiency) in danger of falling to the Eagles (No. 109).

Don’t get too hung up on the low-major thing, either. I’m looking at Kansas State (No. 15 in efficiency) and marveling at how the Wildcats are 11-seeds against USC (No. 20). And they’re playing in Omaha, just up the road from Kansas in America’s heartland.

2008 March Madness Bracket: It’s All About Team Pride

March 12th, 2008

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Everyone’s got a gimmick. Some are right there in your face, like Pamela Anderson’s. Others are less obvious.

My gimmick for filling out my 2008 March Madness bracket is to give added weight to those teams with the most motivation to play well. Not that I’m throwing solid analytical number-crunching out the window. That’s the basis for any sharp bracket. But to separate my bracket from the crowd (and thus have a better chance at winning), I need a gimmick. I need to get emotional.

So who wants it more? Which players are bursting with pride when they slip on their colors? The Memphis Tigers have something to prove coming out of Conference USA. The UCLA Bruins are loaded for bear after two consecutive Final Four appearances. The Duke Blue Devils would love to erase last year’s embarrassing first-round exit. And surely the Wisconsin Badgers are tired of being treated like second-class Big 10 citizens. There’s my Final Four.

Tennessee Volunteers Taken Down a Notch

March 5th, 2008

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Tennessee’s stay atop the college basketball rankings lasted exactly one week. Since beating previously undefeated Memphis as 6.5-point road dogs, the Vols are 0-2 ATS, losing at Vanderbilt and barely squeaking past Kentucky. That was more than enough to knock Tennessee down to No. 2 in the rankings.

Meet the new boss – same as the old boss. The North Carolina Tar Heels have regained their No. 1 spot at a commanding 27-2 SU and 19-7 ATS. But why the Tar Heels? They lost at home to Maryland and Duke and sit in sixth place in team efficiency. Memphis (13-14-2 ATS) still has just the one loss and is third in efficiency.

Not that handicappers care too much about the injustice of the polls – other than profiting from it, of course. Taking back first place should make the Heels that much more fadeable when they play Duke this Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium.



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