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NCAA Tournament: Final Four Predictions/Thoughts

April 2nd, 2008

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This has been a particularly satisfying bout of March Madness for me. I want to see the best teams playing the best teams, and that’s exactly what has happened – all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four. Unless someone pulls a particularly shameful act of bad sportsmanship in San Antonio, whoever wins the Tournament will have well earned it.

If I were making fresh predictions, of course I’d be going with the North Carolina Tar Heels. They’ve swept into the semifinals at 4-0 ATS, pulverizing opponents all the way through the early rounds. We’ve seen increased effort, and thus performance, from Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard in their junior seasons. In college, experience still counts.

But my original prediction of UCLA stands. Memphis didn’t show the same verve as UNC until the Elite Eight, and I see Kevin Love in the same light as Greg Oden – a game changer. If only Oden had these teammates.

NCAA Tournament Odds: Early Final Four Predictions

March 26th, 2008

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There are going to be some very, very good college basketball teams not making the Final Four this year. But who?

Naming the four No. 1 seeds going into the Tournament was easy. But we’ve yet to see all four make it to the semifinals under the current 64/65 team format. UCLA has a relatively easy path through Western Kentucky and maybe Xavier. Everyone else has some work to do.

Kansas shouldn’t be bothered by Villanova in the Sweet 16, but a potential matchup with Wisconsin’s top-ranked defense could gum up the works. I’d still take the Jayhawks straight up in that one. And I suppose the Heels are the right pick, but it won’t be easy for them against Washington State and especially Louisville, should the Cards advance. And they should.

Forcing the trend to work by excluding Memphis doesn’t make sense, but the way the Tigers are playing, I’ll take Texas anyway to win the South.

2008 March Madness Bracket: It’s All About Team Pride

March 12th, 2008

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Everyone’s got a gimmick. Some are right there in your face, like Pamela Anderson’s. Others are less obvious.

My gimmick for filling out my 2008 March Madness bracket is to give added weight to those teams with the most motivation to play well. Not that I’m throwing solid analytical number-crunching out the window. That’s the basis for any sharp bracket. But to separate my bracket from the crowd (and thus have a better chance at winning), I need a gimmick. I need to get emotional.

So who wants it more? Which players are bursting with pride when they slip on their colors? The Memphis Tigers have something to prove coming out of Conference USA. The UCLA Bruins are loaded for bear after two consecutive Final Four appearances. The Duke Blue Devils would love to erase last year’s embarrassing first-round exit. And surely the Wisconsin Badgers are tired of being treated like second-class Big 10 citizens. There’s my Final Four.

Selection Sunday Countdown: Are We There Yet?

January 10th, 2008

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Ah yes…Selection Sunday. The one Sunday out of the year when college basketball fans all across the country gather around their television sets in great anticipation (many still dressed in their pajamas or still drunk from Saturday night’s bender) …with such burning questions on their minds as: 1. Who will the NCAA selection committee shaft this year? 2. Where will my team be seeded? And probably the most important question of all: CAN WE GET THIS OVER WITH SO I CAN FILL OUT MY BRACKET?

Mark this date on your calendars: March 16, 2008

Don’t like my take on Selection Sunday? Here’s Wikipedia’s definition: The selection process for College Basketball’s NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Championship determines which 65 teams will enter the tournament, known as March Madness, and where they will be seeded and placed in the 2008 March Madness bracket. It is done by a special selection committee appointed by the NCAA. Thirty teams have automatic bids by winning their conference tournament; the Ivy League regular-season champion receives an automatic bid because the Ivy League has no conference tournament. Therefore, only 34 teams (the at-large bids) rely on the selection committee to secure them a spot in the tournament. The selection process primarily takes place on Selection Sunday and the days leading up to it. Selection Sunday is also when the brackets and seeds are released to the public.

A couple more months and you’ll all be able to fill out those brackets…

Getting Mad: Is it March Yet?

December 30th, 2007

No, it’s not. But Conference play is set to kick into high gear, with a few non-BCS type games still to play out. So if you’re getting mad for March Madness do what I do…and pull out your “March Madness 08″ game.

EA’s March Madness game delivers hours of hoops goodness. There are more arenas, the gameplay is smooth, controls respond quickly, and the graphics look good (the players are top-notch and they can move real fast!) – all you have to do is put the thing in and start shooting those 3’s.

I know it’s not the real thing but the New Year is just getting underway and March is still…well, simple math tells you that you’re going to have to hang onto that blank bracket for another two months. Be strong. It will be well worth the wait.

College Basketball Invitational? Another Tourney?

December 5th, 2007

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The NIT (which does not actually stand for Not In Tournament) has played second fiddle to March Madness for years now. I don’t recall anyone looking for a third fiddle. But we have one anyway courtesy of the Gazelle Group, the same people behind the Coaches vs. Cancer event and the CBE Classic.

The College Basketball Invitational, born just last month, will be a 16-team single elimination tournament. Only teams that don’t go to the big dance will be invited; those who fall off the bubble may find themselves with a choice of postseason tourneys come March.

More games means more opportunities for handicappers – 133 teams will be in one tournament or other. But is there any demand for it when the NIT is a mere blip on the betting radar? “I just don’t know if there’s a market for a third tournament,” Big East commissioner Michael Tranghese told the Associated Press, “but this is the land of opportunity.”

Odds to win the 2007-08 Men’s Basketball Championship

October 17th, 2007

We’re getting closer to the start of men’s college basketball. But the March Madness futures market remains pretty quiet: North Carolina is still the top favorite at 5-1, while likely preseason No. 1 Memphis is 10-1.

A lot of ink will be spilled over both these teams as this year’s season previews are cranked out. Suffice to say that the Tigers have value, coming out of the lower-profile Conference USA and presenting one of the top freshmen prospects in the nation, guard Derrick Rose. The betting public should be exposed in a big way to Rose and the Tigers once the preseason rankings come out.

Still, 10-1 may not be enough of a payout for some handicappers to play the futures market. There is no runaway “Tiger Woods” favorite in this field, leaving longer shots like Michigan State (25-1) and Washington State (30-1) and even Marquette (35-1) well worth a look.



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