Here we are again. It’s the first round of the men’s college basketball Tournament, which invariably means some unfortunate favorite – like Duke last year – is going to get the heave-ho. Millions of brackets will be busted instantly.

Keeping your bracket intact is more than just an exercise in deciding which No. 13 seed is going to advance to the second round. The point is to find which matchups fit the upset profile. Competent low-major champions often get seeded No. 13, and vulnerable big-time programs often fall to the 4-seed. But what about Winthrop-Washington State? I personally don’t see the Cougars (No. 11 in efficiency) in danger of falling to the Eagles (No. 109).

Don’t get too hung up on the low-major thing, either. I’m looking at Kansas State (No. 15 in efficiency) and marveling at how the Wildcats are 11-seeds against USC (No. 20). And they’re playing in Omaha, just up the road from Kansas in America’s heartland.